Eavex_avgr_eng_feb_11.indd

Avangard's 2010 operational and fi nancial results surpassed our model's expectations. Management recently announced FY10 net profi t of USD 171mn on revenue of USD 434mn. The company produced 4.4bn shell eggs (+22% YoY), and exported the equivalent of 1.0bn pcs of shell eggs. Avangard now expects to produce 6.0bn shell eggs in 2011, a 36.3% YoY increase, with dry egg product output unchanged at about 10,000 tonnes. We update our model to refl ect these fi gures and raise our target price for the AVGR stock to USD 28.3 per share, implying an upside of 34.8% to the current price. Avangard estimates that its net profit in 2010 was USD 171mn, which represents a 28% YoY increase and which is also 28% higher than our forecast. At an investment conference last week, management highlighted 2010E EBITDA of USD 190mn, a 25% YoY growth, and sales Avangard manufactured 4.4bn shell eggs in 2010, a 21.6% YoY increase. This output level was in line with our forecast. However, the productivity of the company's dry egg product operation notably exceeded our expectations. Avangard used 756mn eggs to produce 9,900 tonnes of dry egg products, whereas our model had predicted that the company would need 972mn eggs to achieve this output level. Management's guidance for 2011 output is 6.0bn shell eggs, which would represent a 36.3% YoY increase. We had previously modeled Avangard's 2011 output at 5.2bn shell eggs. We now model a 7.9% 2010-2016 CAGR for the company's egg output growth, to 7.0bn eggs by the end of the period. We also raise our forecast for the inflation of the price of eggs and egg products from 3% to 6% per year. We project that Avangard's revenue will expand at a 13.3% 2010- 2016 CAGR, reaching USD 917mn. We assume that the EBITDA margin will fall from 44% in 2010 to 35% in 2016, and that net margin will gradually come down from 39% in 2010 to 31% in 2016. Avangard's stock price has risen by 46.9% since we published our initiation of coverage report (see "The Golden Egg Express" of 6 October 2010), passing our target price of USD 19.4 per share. We alter our model to include bolder assumptions regarding egg output and price inflation. Our DCF valuation yields a new target price of USD 28.3 per share, or 34.8% above the current market quotation. Avangard currently trades at what we view as a very attractive 2011E P/E of 6.1x, and we thus reiterate our recommendation to BUY the stock. Analyst Volodymyr Dinulv.dinul@eavex.com.ua Source: Company data, Eavex Research 33 Shevchenko Blvd., Kyiv, Ukraine, 01032(+380 44) 590-54-54, (+380 44) 590-54-64offi ce@eavex.com.ua Avangard released some of the preliminary data about its financial performance in 2010 at a recent presentation. The company says it expects to post revenues of USD 434mn (+35.7% YoY), EBITDA of USD 190mn (+25% YoY), and net profit of USD 171mn (+28% YoY). In terms of livestock operations, Avangard reports its flock of laying hens increased to 18.7mn heads (+33.9% YoY) during 2010. Comparison of Avangard's preliminary results with the corresponding figures used in our model suggests that the main deviation was in the company's output of dry egg products. We modeled an output of 9,540 tonnes of dry egg products, which was just 3.8% lower than the actual output of 9,900 tonnes. However, Avangard reports that it utilized 756mn eggs to produce its dry egg product output, which is 22% less than our forecast of 972mn eggs.
A summary of Avangard's preliminary production and financial statistics, along with comparisons with the corresponding statistics for 2009 and the assumptions of our previous model, are provided AVANGARD INCOME STATEMENT RECLASSIFICATION Source: Company data, Eavex Research Avangard aims to increase its output of shell eggs by 35.7% YoY to 6.0bn pcs in 2011. The output of egg products is forecast to remain unchanged at about 800mn shell eggs equivalents or 10,000 tonnes. The company would like to increase its flock of laying hens to 21.9mn heads, up from the 18.7mn heads it had at the end of 2010.
We update our model accordingly to account for the above changes. The two most important 1) We increase the forecast egg output in 2011 to 5.8bn pcs (previously 5.2bn pcs). We keep output in the medium term (2016) capped at 7.0bn eggs per year, i.e. the output level which management expects to achieve after the Avis and Chornobayivske poultry farms come into operation. This implies an egg output CAGR of 7.9% in 2010-2016, and may prove to be overly conservative given that Avangard is already targeting production of 6.0bn shell eggs for 2011, up from the previously 2) We raise our assumption for price inflation for eggs from 3% per year to 6% per year. As a result of these changes, Avangard's sales are now forecasted to grow at a 2010-2016 CAGR of 13.3%, to USD 917mn by the end of the period. We model a gradual reduction in the EBITDA margin from 44% in 2010 to 39% in 2016, and also in the net margin from 39.4% in 2010 to 31.1% in The summary of the company's financials and our model forecasts are provided in Figure 5 through We use two variations of the DCF valuation method to calculate our target price for Avangard's stock. These variations differ in the way in which we determined the terminal value of the company. The first way of determining the terminal value is by applying a 3% permanent growth rate to the company's free cash flow received after 2016. The second way is by applying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x to the company's 2016E EBITDA.
For the DCF valuation, we assumed the following indicator values in order to determine WACC: an equity risk-free rate of 7.4%, which is the yield on Ukraine's Eurobonds maturing in 2020; an equity risk premium of 9% in 2011. This gradually falls to 7% in 2014 and then stays unchanged at this level until the end of the forecast period in 2016; an effective tax rate of 2%. Agricultural producers in Ukraine enjoy a special tax regime, which allows them to pay a flat tax that is effectively far smaller than the standard corporate tax; a pre-tax cost of debt 10.5%, which is the yield on Avangard's Eurobond maturing in 2015; and an EV/EBITDA target multiple of 7.0x. This is the multiple at which MHP currently trades Figure 3). We believe that Avangard and MHP are close comparatives, as they are similar in terms of growth outlook, business model, and operating environment. We therefore believe that the application of MHP's multiple for the valuation of Avangard is justifiable and appropriate. Avangard indicates that its current net debt is USD 94mn, which is the figure we use in our model. DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION OF AVANGARD In figure 2 we summarize our DCF valuation for Avangard. We obtain a fair value of USD 27.8 per share using the target EV/EBITDA approach, and USD 28.9 per share value using the 3% permanent We apply equal weights to these two DCF valuations for the purpose of calculating our final target price of USD 28.3 per share, which implies an upside to the current price of 34.8%. We thus keep our recommendation to buy the AVGR stock unchanged.
We also compare the trading multiples of Avangard to those of its Ukrainian peers as a reasonability check for the results obtained in our DCF valuation exercise (Figure 3). Although Avangard's stock price has appreciated by 41% since the beginning of 2011, the company still trades at a 39.3% discount to its peers' median based on its 2011E EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x. Avangard also trades at 2011E P/E of 6.1x, suggesting a 45.3% discount to the median of its peers. TRADING MULTIPLES. AVANGARD VS UKRAINIAN PEERS of issue for our report "The Golden Egg Express", which indicated a target price of USD 19.4 per share. Nearly the entirety of this increase (41%) has occurred since the outperformed MHP and Astarta, its closest Source: Bloomberg, Eavex Research Ukrainian peers, by correspondingly 21% and 22% in terms of share price growth.
AVANGARD. STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION. STATISTICS AND FORECASTS Short Term Borrowings & Current Portion of LT debt LT finance lease and other financial obligations Total equity attributable to shareholders of Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Source: Company data, Eavex Research AVANGARD. STATEMENT OF INCOME AND LOSS. STATISTICS AND FORECASTS Net change in fair value of biological assets General, administrative and sales expenses Source: Company data, Eavex Research AVANGARD. STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS. STATISTICS AND FORECASTS Effect from translation into presentational Source: Company data, Eavex Research Source: Company data, Eavex Research 33 Shevchenko Blvd., Kyiv, Ukraine, 01032 Investing in emerging markets' securities may entail certain risks. There This document is based on data we deem to be reliable, though we do not guarantee its accuracy or may be limited information available on such securities. Securities of completeness and make no warranties regarding results from its usage. Forecasts are estimates by emerging markets' companies may be less liquid and their prices more specialists working for us, and actual events may turn out to be fundamentally different due to unforeseen volatile than securities of comparable developed markets' companies. In circumstances. This document is provided for information purposes only.
addition, exchange rate movements may have an adverse effect on the value of an investment.
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