Microsoft word - dr mb jan. 21, 2013.docx

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Morning Brief / January 21, 2013

US stocks hit 5-year highs as earnings beat estimates and debt-ceiling talks progressed. DNL, DMC,
MPI, Frontier Oil, JGS, SMC, JFC, MBT, MER, MJC, MJIC, SM, Zest-O Corp, ORE, RLC, PNB, ABC,
PXP, ZHI, Alfredo Yao - Zest Air, Philippine Business Bank (PBB), Banking, Foreign Portfolio
Investments, BOP Surplus, Market Outlook.

U.S. stocks it 5-year highs as earnings beat estimates and debt-ceiling talks progressed. A gauge of
homebuilders rose to the highest level since 2007 amid better-than-expected housing data. The
Week Ahead: More earnings, debt-ceiling talks, Existing home sales data (Tuesday), Jobless claims
(Thursday) New Homes Sales data (Friday).

Local / News

DNL seals deal with Swiss minerals producer Omya. D&L wil be the latter's authorized distributor in
the Philippines for its wide range of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) products, one of the world's most
popular mineral fil ers used in the plastics industry. D&L expects this deal to further enhance its
marketing reach particularly in the field of plastics. D&L's plant facility is seen o become the largest
manufacturing plant in the Philippines with a rated capacity of 60,000 tons per annum. Commercial
operations for the coated products are expected to start Q1 2013.
(DMC, MPI) Maynilad spend P17.2 bil ion for waste and wastewater projects, its largest annual
capital investment since it was privatized in 1997.
This  report  is  provided  for  informational  purposes  only  and  is  not  intended  to  solicit  buying  and  sel ing  of  securities  or  to  participate  
in  any  particular  trading  strategy.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  makes  reasonable  effort  to  use  reliable,  comprehensive  information,  
but   makes   no   representation   or   warranties   as   to   the   accuracy,   completeness,   or   timeliness   of   the   data   provided.   DA   Market  
Securities,   Inc.   shal   not   have   liability   for   any   damages   of   any   kind   relating   to   such   data.   This   report   may   not   be   reproduced   or  
published  for  any  purpose.
Frontier Oil has mapped out a recapitalization program as a preparatory exercise to its initial public
offering (IPO). The SEC has approved an increase in authorized capital stock to 2.7 bil ion shares
with a par value of P1 each, 13x increase from previous capital base of 204 mil ion shares with a par
value of P1 each.
Frontier is a dedicated oil and gas exploration company with a 20-year history, through its founders,
in oil and gas projects in the Philippines. It has an interest in a suite of oil and gas projects, both
onshore and offshore, ranging from near-term production opportunities to extremely large exploration
plays. A company subsidiary is also involved in the development of gas recovery projects in China.
JGS, SMC to reconsider its exclusion of firms with stakes in airlines from bidding for the P17.5 billion
public-private partnership (PPP) project to expand and operate Mactan-Cebu International Airport.,-San-Miguel-to-
JFC is pursuing its plan to expand its flagship brand Jol ibee to Indonesia this 2013. JFC said that
there is "more acceptance" to their products in Indonesia, unlike in India where it has not yet been
able to obtain access to the market. Currently, the company is adjusting some of its offerings to suit
the Indonesian palate. Chowking, is already operating in Indonesia. 300 new store expansions this
year wil be financed through its P5.5 bil ion-worth capex allotment in 2013 vs. the P4 bil ion the
company spent in 2012. The company is confident it was able to book at least a 10% growth in sales
and net income in 2012 and will be able to sustain this growth this year, especial y on the back of
election spending. ibee-keen-on-expanding-to-
MBT wil ing to fast-track growth through the merger-and-acquisition route. But bank Pres. Arthur Ty
Arthur Ty reaffirmed earlier pronouncements that the bank was not in talks to acquire PNB. Ty thinks
"this year is pretty good…If these big (infrastructure) projects take off, that's going to be one source of
growth." Loan book would likely grow by mid-teens. Macquarie in a research note said MBT was in
the best position to capture loans growth given its loan-to-deposit ratio of 68%, the lowest among the
MER likely hit P16 bil ion target for 2012 due to higher electricity sales; 7.4% growth from P14.9
bil ion in 2011. The company wants to put up power plants with capacity of up to 2,700 megawatts,
slated for commercial operation by 2021; the company is said to have sufficient funds to finance
these investments internal y as wel as possible expansion in other regions.
MER also plans to spend some $7 mil ion for the ful rol out of its prepaid electricity metering system
This  report  is  provided  for  informational  purposes  only  and  is  not  intended  to  solicit  buying  and  sel ing  of  securities  or  to  participate  
in  any  particular  trading  strategy.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  makes  reasonable  effort  to  use  reliable,  comprehensive  information,  
but  makes  no  representation  or  warranties  the  accuracy,  completeness,  or  timeliness  of  the  data  provided.  DA  Market  Securities,  
Inc.  shall  not  have  liability  for  any  damages  of  any  kind  relating  to  such  data.  This  report  may  not  be  reproduced  or  published  for  
any  purpose.
to 40,000 residential customers. First phase of pilot tests (100 households) that wil run until midyear
will eventual y cover up to 200 households; commercial pilot to cover 2,000. Once proven feasible,
MER wil apply the prepaid electricity payment scheme on a wider scale, covering 40,000 of its over 5
mil ion customers.
MJC has taken in HK consortium as strategic partner in hotel and tourism estate unit MJC
Investments Corp. (MJIC) to beef up new capital needed to develop an entertainment hub at its
former San Lazaro racetrack in Santa Cruz, Manila. The new investor group wil get 33% of MJIC for
P450 mil ion. This means that the new group wil buy 450 mil ion new shares of MJIC for P1 each,
infusing fresh capital to the company.
Note: The project is envisioned to have a five-star hotel, tourism and entertainment hub located on a
7,500-square meter site at the San Lazaro Tourism and Business Park, which is already home to a
high-end residential condominium project jointly developed by ALI and MJC, as wel as the SM San
Lazaro mal.
MVP is keen on bidding for the expansion of the Mactan-Cebu International Airport with a foreign
partner. Its bid however will be done through a special purpose vehicle not through MPI. MPI has
previously expressed interest in bidding for Ninoy Aquino International Airport terminals as wel in the
Diosdado Macapagal International Airport in Clark, Pampanga.
Philippine Business Bank (PBB) IPO is set to be offered next month. Up to 30% or 101.33 million
primary common shares for as much as P41.94 per share wil be sold to raise about P4.25 billion in
proceeds. The offer price is set to be finalized by Feb. 4 while the offer period wil run from Feb. 6 to
12. Tentative listing date of the bank's shares is Feb 19.
PBB Pres. said the IPO is a strategic move to be able to maybe expand business further and then
raise funds as an added ammunition. The co. said it is building a war chest for possible acquisition
and investments in the horizon of over two to three years if there wil be a license upgrade, with
universal banking as part of a long-term thrust. Yao (with 37.26%) and Zest-O Corp. (with 25.17%)
wil remain as the key shareholders of PBB. The thrift bank has at least 72 branches to date, of which
37 are in Metro Manila where branch expansion is restricted.
ORE unit Citinickel has been fined P146,745 and P368,000 for damage caused to farm lots and the
This  report  is  provided  for  informational  purposes  only  and  is  not  intended  to  solicit  buying  and  sel ing  of  securities  or  to  participate  
in  any  particular  trading  strategy.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  makes  reasonable  effort  to  use  reliable,  comprehensive  information,  
but  makes  no  representation  or  warranties  the  accuracy,  completeness,  or  timeliness  of  the  data  provided.  DA  Market  Securities,  
Inc.  shall  not  have  liability  for  any  damages  of  any  kind  relating  to  such  data.  This  report  may  not  be  reproduced  or  published  for  
any  purpose.
river after a pond spil. A cease-and-desist order on the operation of the Silt Pond No. 2. had been
issued by the EMB of DENR immediately after the outflow incident on Nov. 25. -in-palawan
(RLC) Gokongwei, Okada joint venture talks (with exclusivity arrangement) on casino deal stil
ongoing despite the bribery al egations currently hounding the Okada and Pagcor. The deal would
al ow RLC to acquire a minority stake in Tiger Resorts, Leisure and Entertainment Inc. and a majority
stake in Eagle I Land Holdings Inc. RLC wil be responsible for developing the commercial facilities, a
budget hotel and residential facilities in the project. RLC expects majority in the property on which the
casino, hotels, retail operations wil be set and joint venture on the operating side where Okada wil
have a majority stake of the company.,-okada-talks-on-casino-deal-stil -
PNB, ABC get the remaining local and foreign regulatory approvals to implement merger by Feb.
2013. Financial Services Authority (FSA) of the United Kingdom has approved the change in control
of Allied Bank Philippines (UK) Plc and PNB (Europe) Plc. At the same time, the SEC has approved
the merger and the corresponding amendment to PNB's bylaws reclassifying PNB's authorized
preferred shares into common shares and increasing the number of directors from 11 to 15.
PNB may take in strategic investor only after completing the merger with ABC within the next 18 to 24
months. Acting Pres. Omar Mier said any merger and acquisition would likely proceed only once the
two banks have merged. A PNB-Allied Bank entity would have combined assets of about P560 billion
and 671 branches. It wil also have the biggest overseas footprint of 115-120 offshore units.
PXP's MVP is negotiating only with China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC), despite interest from
other parts of the world (debunking previous reports that PXP was open to talks to US-based firms.)
Talks between Forum Energy and CNOOC wil begin again this year. MVPcouldn't say if a
compromise would be reached within the year, and if a third party operator would be al owed to join.
The company has also requested for an extension for phase 1, or phase sub 1 deadline in August
2013 due to lack of a viability study.
Note: A survey earlier revealed SC 72 contains prospective resources of as much as 16.6 tril ion
cubic feet of gas, and 416 mil ion barrels of oil.
SM says final terms of joint venture with Waltermart Group subject to due diligence.
This  report  is  provided  for  informational  purposes  only  and  is  not  intended  to  solicit  buying  and  sel ing  of  securities  or  to  participate  
in  any  particular  trading  strategy.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  makes  reasonable  effort  to  use  reliable,  comprehensive  information,  
but  makes  no  representation  or  warranties  the  accuracy,  completeness,  or  timeliness  of  the  data  provided.  DA  Market  Securities,  
Inc.  shall  not  have  liability  for  any  damages  of  any  kind  relating  to  such  data.  This  report  may  not  be  reproduced  or  published  for  
any  purpose.

SMC, MPI have struck a compromise on the P7-billion, five-kilometer common alignment for their
respective North Luzon-South Luzon Expressway (NLEx-SLEx) connector road projects. SMC-Citra
tandem wil build the connector road and shoulder 62.5% of the cost. But once MPI's connector road
is ready to operate, it wil reimburse 37.5% of the cost to SMC-Citra. MPI thus ceded to SMC's
proposal of a back-ended payment scheme but SMC accepted a higher cost component.
Biz-Buzz, Inquirer,
Speculation is that within the next few days, Yap is set to meet with Australian mining group
NewCrest to talk about prospective investment in ZHI. It is believed that Yap has long wanted to
unlock values from contiguous property to Far Southeast gold mining project and was previously in
talks with Gold Fields as wel. ZHI is an operator of mining claims in the Carrascal, Cantil an and
Madrid in Surigao del Sur, which, however, has yet to obtain a mineral production sharing agreement
Trader from a mid-sized universal bank has supposedly stolen $1M, but some also think this is just
the tip of the iceberg. Clue for the bank: One of its biggest branches along Ayala Ave. in Makati is
located in a building named for another bank. And its image model is a popular actress.
Alfredo Yao in talks with prospective investors for Zest-Air Corp., ike AirAsia, Hainan Airlines and
even Cebu Pacific Airways and does not mind giving up majority. Yao is also working on the stock
market listing of thrift bank unit Philippine Business Bank slated for February. Most recently, Yao
has started groundwork to list crown jewel Zest-O Corp., one of the country's biggest food and
beverage firms, of which he is sel ing 25-30%.
GSIS is inviting bids for 6,470-square-meter property at the corner of T.M. Kalaw and Taft Ave. where
the Jai-Alai building-which was one of the finest Art Deco buildings in Asia-used to stand, with
minimum set at set at P455.361 mil ion. Pre-bid conference set on Feb. 4.

Local / Sector
This  report  is  provided  for  informational  purposes  only  and  is  not  intended  to  solicit  buying  and  sel ing  of  securities  or  to  participate  
in  any  particular  trading  strategy.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  makes  reasonable  effort  to  use  reliable,  comprehensive  information,  
but  makes  no  representation  or  warranties  the  accuracy,  completeness,  or  timeliness  of  the  data  provided.  DA  Market  Securities,  
Inc.  shall  not  have  liability  for  any  damages  of  any  kind  relating  to  such  data.  This  report  may  not  be  reproduced  or  published  for  
any  purpose.


BPI: Bank lending expected to expand another double-digit pace (10-15%) this year due to sufficient
appetite to extend credit to individuals and enterprises. Asset price bubble in the property market was
stil remote, contrary to fears raised by some analysts.
Note: As a rule of thumb, credit could rise at a pace that was two to three times faster than the growth
of the economy without causing worrisome inflation. In the first three quarters of 2012, the Philippine
economy grew by 6.5%.

Local / Economy
BSP is studying expanding reserve requirements on bank trust products as it seeks to guard
against asset inflation.

HSBC: Foreign portfolio investments to rise in 2013 as investors ride on the consensus that the
Philippines wil get an investment grade rating this year. Rising portfolio money would help fund
expansion and investment plans of local companies. The slack in FDIs could be offset by a likely
increase in investments by domestic firms resulting from higher demand for their stocks and bonds.
BOP surplus hit $9.42 billion end-2012 vs. initial estimate of $8.9 bil ion, but 9% lower than the
$10.18 billion. The surplus is due largely to a sustained increase in remittances sent by overseas
Filipinos, a surge in foreign portfolio investments and higher foreign investments in the services
sector. Gross international reserves (GIR) also registered a new record high of $83.8 bil ion (revised
from the initial estimate of $84.2 bil ion) last year, up 11% from $75.3 bil ion the previous year.

Market Outlook
This  report  is  provided  for  informational  purposes  only  and  is  not  intended  to  solicit  buying  and  sel ing  of  securities  or  to  participate  
in  any  particular  trading  strategy.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  makes  reasonable  effort  to  use  reliable,  comprehensive  information,  
but  makes  no  representation  or  warranties  the  accuracy,  completeness,  or  timeliness  of  the  data  provided.  DA  Market  Securities,  
Inc.  shall  not  have  liability  for  any  damages  of  any  kind  relating  to  such  data.  This  report  may  not  be  reproduced  or  published  for  
any  purpose.

Last week, the main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index gained 1.44 percent to close at a new
record high of 6,139.21. A new intraday peak of 6,150.62 was also established.
BDO chief strategist Jonathan Ravelas: Stock market buoyed by strong investor sentiment, supported
by strong macroeconomic fundamentals; discounting the market valuations and just focusing on the
growth story of the country. Market has momentum to try 6,200-6,300 but is in an overbought state;
failure could bring market to 5,800-5,850 levels.
HSBC Survey: 3 out of 4 bul ish global fund managers are bul ish on equities this first quarter of 2013,
with the remaining quarter keeping a neutral outlook. 75% of fund managers have an "overweight"
view towards equities this quarter, much higher than the 40% share in the previous survey in the Q4
2012. An "overweight" view is a recommendation to buy stocks in excess of a model index or
portfolio. ish-on-stocks
This  report  is  provided  for  informational  purposes  only  and  is  not  intended  to  solicit  buying  and  sel ing  of  securities  or  to  participate  in  any  particular  trading  strategy.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  makes  reasonable  effort  to  use  reliable,  comprehensive  information,  but  makes  no  representation  or  warranties  the  accuracy,  completeness,  or  timeliness  of  the  data  provided.  DA  Market  Securities,  Inc.  shall  not  have  liability  for  any  damages  of  any  kind  relating  to  such  data.  This  report  may  not  be  reproduced  or  published  for  any  purpose.


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Economic theory is often abused in practical policy-making. There is frequentlyexcessive focus on sophisticated theory at the expense of elementary theory; toomuch economic knowledge can sometimes be a dangerous thing. Too littleattention is paid to the wider economic context, and to the dangers posed bypolitical pressures. Superficially trivial distinctions between policy proposalsmay be economic

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